The Greenest Megawatt is the One We Can Predict
Why a 1% gain in forecasting accuracy is the ultimate weapon against CO2 and market volatility. In the transition to a ...
Why a 1% gain in forecasting accuracy is the ultimate weapon against CO2 and market volatility.
In the transition to a carbon-neutral economy, we often focus on hardware: more turbines, more panels, more batteries. But a hidden inefficiency is threatening this progress. When we cannot predict renewable output, the grid suffers, costs skyrocket, and the planet pays the price.
At Renewcast, we view forecasting not just as a data service, but as a sustainability mission. Here is why the "accuracy gap" is the next great environmental challenge.
1. The Financial Drain: The Cost of Intermittency
Predicting the wind and sun is no longer just a technical challenge; it is a multi-billion dollar economic hurdle. As renewable penetration increases, the cost of managing "intermittency" grows.
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The Data: According to the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform, the total expenditure for balancing energy (the cost to keep the grid stable when supply doesn't meet demand) has reached billions of Euros across Europe. In periods of high volatility, imbalance prices can surge to over €500/MWh, directly impacting the profitability of renewable portfolios.
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The Trend: As the share of variable renewable energy (VRE) grows, the complexity of grid stabilization increases. Without advanced AI to bridge the gap, these "system costs" act as a tax on the energy transition.
2. The Carbon Cost of Uncertainty
The most damaging consequence of poor forecasting is environmental. When a renewable forecast misses the mark, the grid must find an immediate replacement to prevent a blackout.
- The Reality: To compensate for unexpected drops in solar or wind, grid operators call upon "peaker plants", typically carbon-intensive gas or coal units.
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The Math: Improved forecasting reduces reliance on fossil-fuel backup, lowering marginal emissions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), digitalization and better data integration could reduce co2 emissions by optimizing the dispatch of existing assets and avoiding the use of carbon-heavy backup plants.
3. The 15-Minute Market Imperative
Europe’s grid stability now relies on a high-frequency reality. The transition to a 15-minute Imbalance Settlement Period (ISP) is required by EU Regulation 2019/943 and implemented by TSOs via ENTSO-E to manage the "variable" nature of renewables.
The Regulation: As documented in EU Regulation 2019/943, shortening the settlement period is essential for market efficiency but creates massive financial exposure for those with low-quality forecasts.
Our Difference:
At Renewcast we don't just provide a percentage of probability. By using Asset-Specific Digital Twins, we bridge the gap between "variable" energy and a stable grid. Our technology ensures that every ray of sun and every gust of wind is accounted for and optimized.
References
15-Minute ISP Regulation: Official legal text on the 15-minute mandate for European markets.