--- title: "Icing-aware forecasting: from sea ice to turbine blades" description: Explore the connection between sea ice and wind turbine icing, and discover how advanced forecasting can improve wind power efficiency in cold climates. image: https://renewcast.com/hubfs/Icing-aware%20forecasting%20from%20sea%20ice%20to%20turbine%20blades.png --- [![Renewcast\_logotipe-claim-brandmark\_Bluegreen\_Banner](https://renewcast.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Renewcast_logotipe-claim-brandmark_Bluegreen_Banner.webp?width=250&height=60&name=Renewcast_logotipe-claim-brandmark_Bluegreen_Banner.webp "Renewcast_logotipe-claim-brandmark_Bluegreen_Banner")](https://143959664.hs-sites-eu1.com/) - [Services](https://renewcast.com/homepage#services) - [Our Value](https://renewcast.com/homepage#value) - [About Us](https://renewcast.com/homepage#about) - [Blog](https://renewcast.com/blog) - [Newsletter](https://renewcast.com/homepage#newsletter) [Contact Us](https://renewcast.com/en/contact-us) [![Renewcast\_logotipe-claim-brandmark\_Bluegreen\_Banner](https://renewcast.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Renewcast_logotipe-claim-brandmark_Bluegreen_Banner.webp?width=250&height=60&name=Renewcast_logotipe-claim-brandmark_Bluegreen_Banner.webp "Renewcast_logotipe-claim-brandmark_Bluegreen_Banner")](https://143959664.hs-sites-eu1.com/) [Contact Us](https://renewcast.com/en/contact-us) [![Renewcast\_logotipe-claim-brandmark\_Bluegreen\_Banner](https://renewcast.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Renewcast_logotipe-claim-brandmark_Bluegreen_Banner.webp?width=250&height=60&name=Renewcast_logotipe-claim-brandmark_Bluegreen_Banner.webp "Renewcast_logotipe-claim-brandmark_Bluegreen_Banner")](https://143959664.hs-sites-eu1.com/) - [Services](https://renewcast.com/homepage#services) - [Our Value](https://renewcast.com/homepage#value) - [About Us](https://renewcast.com/homepage#about) - [Blog](https://renewcast.com/blog) - [Newsletter](https://renewcast.com/homepage#newsletter) [Contact Us](https://renewcast.com/en/contact-us) [![Renewcast\_logotipe-claim-brandmark\_Bluegreen\_Banner](https://renewcast.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Renewcast_logotipe-claim-brandmark_Bluegreen_Banner.webp?width=250&height=60&name=Renewcast_logotipe-claim-brandmark_Bluegreen_Banner.webp "Renewcast_logotipe-claim-brandmark_Bluegreen_Banner")](https://143959664.hs-sites-eu1.com/) [Contact Us](https://renewcast.com/en/contact-us) - [Services](https://renewcast.com/homepage#services) - [Our Value](https://renewcast.com/homepage#value) - [About Us](https://renewcast.com/homepage#about) - [Blog](https://renewcast.com/blog) - [Newsletter](https://renewcast.com/homepage#newsletter) [Contact us](https://renewcast.com/en/contact-us) WindTech Insights # Icing-aware forecasting: from sea ice to turbine blades Ice is one of the clearest signals of how fast the climate is changing, and it is also a direct cost for anyone running ... [Renewcast Team](https://renewcast.com/blog/author/renewcast-team) Oct 27, 2026 --- [WindTech Insights](https://renewcast.com/blog/tag/windtech-insights) Ice is one of the clearest signals of how fast the climate is changing, and it is also a direct cost for anyone running wind power in cold regions. The same cold, humid air that builds ice on the ocean builds it on a turbine blade. This article follows that thread, from the sea ice record to the physics of icing and the research on predicting it. **How sea ice is measured and forecast** Sea ice extent is the area of the ocean where at least 15% of the surface is covered by ice. Satellite passive microwave sensors measure it every day, and archives maintained by NSIDC and by EUMETSAT’s OSI SAF go back to 1978-1979. The two archives do not always agree. For 2026, the OSI SAF record puts the September minimum 14th lowest since 1979, while NSIDC puts it 11th, because several recent years have minima very close to each other ([Met Office, September 2026](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/monitoring/sea-ice/2026/briefing-on-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-and-antarctic-sea-ice-maximum-report---september-2026)). Forecasts work on different horizons, and each needs different tools. Days ahead, the problem is weather prediction. Months ahead, the problem is memory: the ice pack carries information from one season to the next. A 2026 paper in *Chaos* combines long-term climate patterns, the annual cycle and short-term weather shifts into a real-time model. Its authors report better accuracy than other approaches for predicting September extent one to four months ahead ([ScienceDaily, February 2026](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/02/260206232249.htm)). Every summer, research groups submit their own estimates of the September minimum to the Sea Ice Outlook, and the spread between them shows how much forecasts still disagree. In June 2026, the 18 submissions ranged from 4.22 to 5.18 million km², with a median of 4.83 million km² ([Met Office](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/monitoring/sea-ice/2026/briefing-on-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-and-antarctic-sea-ice-maximum-report---september-2026)). **What the record says about climate** Sea ice is bright, so it reflects much of the sunlight that reaches it. When it melts, the darker ocean absorbs more heat, which melts more ice. This feedback is one reason the Arctic warms faster than the global average, and it is why the September minimum is one of the main indicators of Arctic health. The 2026 minimum was 5.06 million km² on 12 September, 1.51 million km² below the 1981-2010 average. It was also 0.75 million km² above the long-term linear trend ([Met Office](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/monitoring/sea-ice/2026/briefing-on-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-and-antarctic-sea-ice-maximum-report---september-2026)). A single year can sit well above or below the trend, so the trend is the signal and the annual value is partly noise. The same logic applies to forecasts: without predicting year-to-year variability, a trend is hard to separate from a lucky or unlucky summer. The Antarctic tells a similar story with its own quirks. The maximum recorded on 11 September, 18.12 million km², would be the third lowest in the satellite record if it stands, behind 2023 and 2024. Antarctic maxima have occasionally been recorded as late as early October, so the figure is provisional ([Met Office](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/monitoring/sea-ice/2026/briefing-on-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-and-antarctic-sea-ice-maximum-report---september-2026)). **The physics of icing on turbine blades** Ice forms on turbine blades when supercooled water droplets hit a surface below freezing. Two types matter. Rime ice freezes almost on contact and forms a compact, opaque layer near the leading edge. Glaze ice freezes more slowly and forms irregular, horn-shaped growths that change the airfoil much more. A 2026 numerical study of the NREL 5 MW reference turbine, published in MDPI’s *Applied Sciences*, quantifies the effect. Ice builds up most toward the tip, where relative velocity and droplet collection are highest. Glaze icing causes severe aerodynamic degradation, while rime causes smaller losses. Feeding the degraded airfoil data into standard power calculations gives total losses of up to 40% under severe conditions, with the outer blade sections contributing most ([Cankaya University repository, 2026](https://gcris2.cankaya.edu.tr/entities/publication/c9121a96-d8d3-40c4-85cd-deb4c158cc63)). **Learning icing from data** Physics explains what happens on the blade, but forecasting needs to know when it will happen. Temperature and humidity alone do not separate icing hours from non-icing hours well. A 2026 study in *Cold Regions Science and Technology* benchmarked machine-learning and deep-learning models on one winter of data from a single cold-climate turbine. It found that the choice of input variables mattered more than the depth of the network, and that adding icing-sensor readings and liquid water content improved forecasts over the next hour ([Kallarappayi et al., 2026](https://kar.kent.ac.uk/id/document/3498234)). The study covers one turbine and one winter, so it points to a method rather than a settled answer, but it shows where the useful information is. **What it means for wind power in cold regions** Sea ice and wind turbines look like distant topics, but they share a variable: the cold, humid conditions that produce ice. Better seasonal forecasts help plan for variability. Better hourly icing forecasts help operators handle the losses that change from one winter to the next. Renewcast has covered how it approaches icing forecasting for wind farms in earlier posts, including what makes an icing forecast useful in practice and what to look for in wind forecasting software.   **Sources** - Met Office, “Briefing on Arctic sea ice minimum and Antarctic sea ice maximum report,” 21 September 2026 - ScienceDaily, “New forecasts offer early warning of Arctic sea ice loss,” 6 February 2026, on Kondrashov et al., *Chaos* 36(2), 2026 - Cankaya University repository, “An Investigation of Atmospheric Icing Effects on Wind Turbine Blade Aerodynamics and Power Output,” MDPI, 2026 - Kallarappayi et al., *Cold Regions Science and Technology*, 2026, via University of Kent repository Share on :   ## Similar posts [![Renewcat\_logo\_2](https://renewcast.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Renewcat_logo_2.png?width=300&height=207&name=Renewcat_logo_2.png "Renewcat_logo_2")](https://143959664.hs-sites-eu1.com/homepage) [![#10 Top Company-2](https://renewcast.com/hs-fs/hubfs/%2310%20Top%20Company-2.png?width=2000&height=1000&name=%2310%20Top%20Company-2.png "#10 Top Company-2")](https://www.f6s.com/renewcast) ##### Links - [Services](https://renewcast.com/homepage#services) - [Our Value](https://renewcast.com/homepage#value) - [About Us](https://renewcast.com/homepage#about) - [Blog](https://renewcast.com/blog) - [Careers](https://renewcast.com/en/careers) ##### Press Release - [SAFE/CLA - english version](https://eu1.hubs.ly/H0cg1Pb0) - [SAFE/CLA - versione italiana](https://eu1.hubs.ly/H0cg2880) - [Seed Round - Italian version](https://renewcast.com/hubfs/Renewcast%20SAFE_CLA%20-%20comunicato%20stampa%20-%20Versione%20Italiana%2006.%20Sep.%202024%20approved.pdf) - [Board of Directors](https://renewcast.com/hubfs/Press%20Release/Board%20of%20Directors.pdf) - [SAFE 2C Ventures - English Version](https://renewcast.com/hubfs/Press%20Release/SAFE%202C%20Ventures%20_%20English.pdf) - [SAFE 2C Ventures - versione Italiana](https://renewcast.com/hubfs/Press%20Release/SAFE%202C%20Ventures%20_Italian_.pdf) ##### Privacy Policies - [Privacy Policy](https://renewcast.com/en/privacy-policy) - [Cookie Policy](https://renewcast.com/en/cookie-policy) - [Privacy Policy (contact form)](https://renewcast.com/en/privacy-policy-0) - [Privacy Policy (recruiting - CV)](https://renewcast.com/en/privacy-policy-0-0) - [Whistleblowing](https://whistleblowing.renewcast.com/#/) ###### Contact Us - fabio.nicolo@renewcast.com - +39 340 3331807 - Viale Angelico, 205 - 00195 Rome, Italy --- Renewcast is an Innovative Start-up registered in the Italian innovative start-up register. 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